ONE PITCHER OR TWO
In a pitching-dominant sport, how important is the balance between the indicated ace and the rest of the pitching corps? Can you win championships with just one dominant pitcher?
Readers often ask these questions, and my answer over the years is that there is no one coaching strategy, nor are you guaranteed success by having the best pitcher of the day as measured by strikeouts alone. At least in theory, a team at any level is improved by having two outstanding pitchers who can be used in rotation. In practice, few teams have enjoyed such a bounty of riches.
So many factors enter into the coaching equation, not the least of which is that, in most instances, one of those pitchers wants to be identified as the “go to” hurler, and given the ball in most if not all key games. Intersquad competition aside, coaching decisions on which pitcher to use have to consider the quality of the opponent and its record against each pitcher; the strength of the offense and defense behind the pitcher; and, never least in college ball, the schedule.
Conference double-headers usually compel using two pitchers, or at least letting a #2 take the first few innings and calling on the ace only when necessary, especially if there is a rubber game the next day. In practice, there have been double-headers in which the ace or at least the better pitcher starts both games – and that decision can be dictated by the strength of the competition, the situation (title or series on the line), the record of the backup pitcher against that team, etc.
SPY has put together a table showing the experiential data for all pitchers for the top 25 teams in the USA Softball poll (games thru April 26). (See file Pitching Comparisons)
There are some anomalies to consider when debating the one pitcher or two equation.
The three most prolific strikeout artists in Division I have been Monica Abbott (2,440 K), Catherine Osterman (2,265 K) and Angela Tincher (2,002 K). Abbott had a ratio of 11.8 Ks per 7 innings; Osterman 14.3; Tincher is 13.5. (Abbott edged Osterman for the gross number title by pitching 343 more innings).
That dominance notwithstanding, Abbott and Osterman could not deliver World Series titles to Tennessee or Texas, and the Virginia Tech team headed by Tincher is at best a long-shot for the 2008 title.
On the other hand, two pitchers with much lower totals – Alicia Hollowell 1768 and Taryne Mowatt 1177 – have won World Series for Arizona. Jennie Ritter (Michigan) and Jocelyn Forest (Cal) were well behind the top three on total Ks (1205 and 1203) but they won WCWS with strong teams. Kiera Goerl doesn’t rank in the top 22 on K’s or top 57 in strike-out ratio, but she won back-to-back WCWS titles for UCLA – and has the distinction of pitching the only no-hitter in World Series history. Jennie Finch makes the lists of games won but not as a strikeout artist, but she won the 2001 World Series.
World Series history is replete with histories of successful pitchers – Shawn Andaya won it for Texas A&M with her bat and arm – followed in the Nineties by epic duels between the likes of Nancy Evans at Arizona and Lisa Fernandez at UCLA. One pitcher who did not win but was voted Most Outstanding Player was Kristin Schmidt of LSU, a testament to her incredible endurance and will to win.
True, all had teams with other pitchers who did share some of the load. And, at least one team had the semblance of a true rotation. The Oklahoma Sooners won the 2000 WCWS and Jennifer Stewart was named MVP. Stewart started 37 games, completed 25, and had 34 victories in 45 appearances. But, team captain Lana Moran, who was the GTE Academic All-American of the Year 2000, had a 26-2 record and led the Big 12 with an ERA of 1.28, appearing in 39 games.
As the attached statistics show, few teams today have that much balance. Arizona State seems to have a measure of it, but those who watch the Sun Devils (and look at the number of games started vs games completed) know that Megan Elliott (18-0, completed 12 of 19 starts) is frequently relieved by Katie Burkhart. Similarly, Stephanie Brombacher at Florida is also 18-0 but has completed just 10 of 22 starts. Rhiannon Kleising of Texas A&M gives definition to the second position, especially with Amanda Scarborough lost for the season. Kleising has completed 15 of 16 games started.
A coach may relieve a starter for many reasons, not limited to troubles getting outs; a third or fourth pitcher may need work, or the starter is tiring, etc. So, games completed vs games started is not an absolute – other factors specific to each game have to be known. But, it remains a critical criterion.
A standout statistic: ASU's Katie Burkhart has started 28 games – and completed 28 games.
Some other completion ratios:
Stacey Nelson, Florida 31 of 34
Anjelica Selden, UCLA 18 of 23
Megan Gibson, Texas A&M 28 of 30
Missy Penna, Stanford 31 of 38
Morgan Melloh, Fresno State 34 of 35
Lauren Delaney, Northwestern 32 of 33
Angel Shamblin, Houston 26 of 29
Brooke Turner, LBSU 27 of 28
Bridgette Pagano, LBSU 18 of 20
Ashley Brignac, ULL 18 of 25
Angela Tincher, Virginia Tech 26 of 32
Christina Ross, San Diego State 24 of 30
Brandice Balschmiter, U Mass 26 of 28
Marissa Drewery, Cal 30 of 39
Taryne Mowatt, Arizona 22 of 25
Kelsi Dunne, Alabama 13 of 23
What might be called a “dependence factor” can be found in the percentage of starts some pitchers have made on their respective teams of total games played:
Burkhart 28 of 55 50.9%
Nelson 34 of 58 58.6%
Selden 23 of 46 50.0%
Gibson 30 of 52 57.6%
Penna 38 of 52 73.0%
Melloh 35 of 55 63.6%
Delaney 33 of 44 75.0%
Shamblin 29 of 53 54.7%
Turner 28 of 48 58.3%
Pagano 18 of 48 37.5%
Brignac 25 of 51 49.0%
Tincher 32 of 56 57.1%
Ross 30 of 52 57.6%
Balschmiter 28 of 45 62.2%
Drewery 39 of 59 66.1%
Mowatt 25 of 45 55.5%
Dunne 23 of 51 45.0%
That dependence factor rises when you calculate total appearances, eg, Burkhart has appeared in 36 of ASU’s 55 games, 65.4%. Nelson has appeared in 42 of the Gators’ 58 games, 72.4%. Melloh has appeared in 47 of Fresno State’s 55 games, 85.4% Tincher in 44 of Tech’s 56 games, 78.5%. Balschmiter in 34 of 45 U Mass games, 75.5%. Ross has pitched in 43 of SDSU’s 52 games, 82.6%. Mowatt has pitched in 32 of Arizona’s 45 games, 71.1%. Dunne 29 of 51 Bama games, 56.8%.The “workhorse” champion: Lauren Delaney has pitched in 40 of the Wildcats’ 44 games, 90.9%.
The consensus top five -- Arizona State, Alabama, Florida, UCLA and Michigan -- all have to different degrees what could be described as a one-two punch. Alabama goes a step further: the Tide consistently uses three pitchers. While Charlotte Morgan has completed 5 of 12 starts, Chrissy Owens 10 of 15 starts, and Dunne 13 of 23, perhaps the more significant numbers are their appearances: Morgan 16, Owens 23 and Dunne 29 -- 68 pitching participations in 51 games -- which reflects a certain strategy underlying the Tide's success.
Michigan leads NCAA charts for team ERA which is a direct reflection of the balance in the Wolverine rotation.
There is seemingly more of a rotation at some schools:
Michigan Taylor 28 starts; Nemitz 21 starts
Tennessee Ward 30, Rhodes 25
North Carolina Norris 22, Spaulding 18
Long Beach State Turner 28, Pagano 20
LSU Hofer 25, Trahan 17
Washington Macon 24, Noble 21
Mississippi State Nurnberg 29, Flesher 22
Hawaii Robinson 22, Baughman 21
Nevada McPherson 24, Holverson 23
Alabama Dunne 23, Owens 15, Morgan 12
Note: Of the top 50 schools in all three national polls, only Oklahoma declines to publish its current statistics.
We also tracked home runs yielded by these starters;
Delaney 17
Hofer 16
Robinson 15
Tincher 14
Mowatt 14
B Pagano 13
Ward 13
Melloh 12
Burkhart 12
Elliott 12
Holverson 12
Macon 12
Brignac 12
Gibson 11
Rhodes 10
McPherson 10
Ross 9
Bottom line: it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know that, if these teams make the World Series, who will be given the ball. The World Series schedule is conductive to that one pitcher dependence (as long as you keep winning).
End RFH